Conference Board Confidence Dips, Labor Market 'Weakest' In A Year

Following an ‘odd’ stabilization in April (given the collapse of most other sentiment signals), analysts expected The Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to deteriorate notably in May… but it barely budged…

The headline Conference Board confidence print dropped from 107.3 to 106.4 (better than the plunge to 103.5 expected)

Source: Bloomberg

Conf Board:

“The decline in the Present Situation Index was driven solely by a perceived softening in labor market conditions.”

Expectations picked up modestly while current conditions dipped as the labor market tightened to its weakest since May 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, major appliances, and more all cooled – likely a reflection of rising interest rates and consumers pivoting from big-ticket items to spending on services. Vacation plans have also softened due to rising prices.

Survey respondents’ outlook for business is dramatically worse with optimism tumbling and pessimism soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation expectations 1-year-ahead dipped modestly but remain near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, who exactly is The Conference Board interviewing? Because it’s not the same people who UMich are surveying…

Source: Bloomberg

Indeed, as The Conference Board notes, inflation remains top of mind for consumers, with their inflation expectations in May virtually unchanged from April’s elevated levels. Looking ahead, expect surging prices and additional interest rate hikes to pose continued downside risks to consumer spending this year.”