Rabobank: So Much Today Is So Stupid
By Michael every of Rabobank
Today can be summarised with one word – ‘payrolls’. Indeed, short is best. Also given so much today is so stupid it does not deserve a detailed response, I am using emoticons as commentary:
ヽ(・∀・)ノ
The Fed’s Brainard and Mester were hawkish and the market is pricing more than 175bp of hikes:
(>﹏<)
Goldman warned of an “unprecedented, complex, dynamic environment”; BlackRock added inflation will stay high for years due to supply chain snarls:
<( ̄ ﹌  ̄)>
OPEC+ reshuffled the same old cards, and energy prices closed the session higher:
(⇀‸↼‶)
The US floated a profits tax on energy firms, disincentivising any new domestic energy supply:
(」><)」
Yet US stocks rallied and the US dollar sold off (on bad data and, perhaps, Fed swaps?):
¯_ (ツ)_/¯
The White House is reportedly shaking up its economic team:
٩(◕‿◕)۶
If so, Treasury Secretary Yellen, whose CNN interview saying she got inflation wrong because she couldn’t have known about supply-side shocks was a shocker, will be de-emphasised:
ヽ( ̄ω ̄(。。 )ゝ
Secretary of Commerce Raimondo and Director of the National Economic Council Deese will be elevated – Deese authored this week’s Wall Street Journal op-ed that said, “Over to you, Fed.”
(-‸ლ)
Importantly, China continues to come out of lock-down… as community infections return again a day after opening up:
ε(´סּ︵סּ`)з
(°Ω°)/
So, markets will be looking at payrolls today like this:
(-(-_-(-_(-_(-_-)_-)-_-)_-)_-)-)
But still seem minded to react to data and events in ways that make many feel like this:
¯(°_o)/¯
Meanwhile, President Biden is going to Saudi Arabia, and is upgrading defense ties with the UAE:
ヽ༼ ຈل͜ຈ༼ ▀̿̿Ĺ̯̿̿▀̿ ̿༽Ɵ͆ل͜Ɵ͆ ༽ノ
As ‘China Warns New Zealand Against Squandering Trade Ties: Beijing envoy says economic relationships shouldn’t be taken for granted’ after this week’s Kiwi shift closer to the US:
ᕙ(⇀‸↼‶)ᕗ
The US says it may ban goods from China’s Xinjiang as soon as 21 June:
├┬┴┬┴┬┴┬┴┤
The EU is rapidly upgrading its economic ties with Taiwan, as is the US:
(づ。◕‿‿◕。)づ
Yet ‘Beijing urges US to cut military ties with Taiwan’ after Secretary of Defence Austin said he would make available ‘defence articles and services’ to defend against ‘the Chinese threat’:
︻╦╤─
In short, most developments are deeply:
ʕ·͡ᴥ·ʔ
Yet markets somehow still expect this to happen:
[̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ιοο̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]
ヾ(  ̄O ̄)ツ
Or this:
( •͡˘ _•͡˘)ノð
ð
ð
ヾ(  ̄O ̄)ツ
So, I mostly feel like this:
┻━┻ ︵ヽ(`Д´)ノ︵ ┻━┻
But now, until payrolls, it’s time to:
(._.)
Happy Friday!
(⁀ᗢ⁀)
Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/03/2022 – 10:06