I'll start with the usual: I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice! Everything following this is opinion/observation. Much of my knowledge of the markets has been acquired through reading countless hours of DD posted by others.
OBLIGATORY – BuY & HoDl!
Now that that is out of the way, I would like to reference a few authors and their inspired DD that helped get me to this point. The below have DD's that are a must read if you have not already; please visit their profiles and read their posts. I will attempt to summarize the main points briefly below.
u/myplayprofile – I am highlighting just one of their posts, but it goes into linear correlation which is now shifting to logarithmic correlation between GME & AMC prices. AND he explains how there is the possibility that AMC is being used by hedgefucks to hedge their GME losses.
This post is focused on u/Criand's DD, which enlightened me and many others as to what the fuck has been going on with the 21 day / 31 day FTD cycles.
Basically his DD over the last few weeks is the most accurate hypothesis that we have to date regarding the FTD cycles, and one of his most recent posts shows how this theory is now supported by the price action seen on May 25th and in the following days.
- He clarifies the confusion around why the standalone T+21 day FTD cycles, which have been shown to cause price surges, do not act the same way as they did during the $480 run and the $350 run.
- Explains how the Feb-March $350 run was caused by a dual event of T+35 & T+21 day FTD cycles occurring in close proximity to one another (back to back trading days)
- Notes that the Feb 24th initiation of the run up to $350 was exactly 10 days before we peaked at $350
- He references u/yelyah2 DD, which shows how gamma neutral spikes on day 1 of the $480 and $350 price run ups, returns to normal for about a week, and then spikes up massively again, initiating the January and February Gamma Squeezes
Below is my furtherment of u/Criand's work all in one concise graphic which feels oddly like a child to me right now. Not sure if that is just because I have not really written any DD's before.
Please click the image to view it blown up and actually take in what is being laid out for you with my lovely computer crayons which I swear to god I don't eat… EVER.
- I am not sure why I called the $480 and $350 price run ups in the visual "Micro Squeezes", but thats what came to mind. Perhaps gamma squeeze is more appropriate given u/yelyah2 recent DD?
- Yellow is micro squeeze 1
- Blue is micro squeeze 2
- Pink is the past 6 days
Alright folks. I have talked a lot about other peoples work, and given you a graphic. Now comes my value add.
- Not only was it a 10 trading day ramp up from the February 24th initiation to $350 on March 10th, but it was also EXACTLY 10 TRADING DAYS between the January 13th initiation to the $480 peak on January 29th. My reason for calling this out specifically is that it strengthens the theory surrounding the combined T+35/T+21 day price movements, and helps us further establish that we could potentially go PARABOLIC AGAIN 10 trading days from 5/25 on JUNE 9th. Will they be able to stop us this time? Maybe it doesn't even matter if the do… See my next points
- In the aftermath of the January "micro squeeze" the Dec-Jan price floor of ~$20 DOUBLED, and the new price floor was set at ~$40 between Feb 5th – 25th. In the aftermath of the Feb 24th – Mar 10th "micro squeeze" the price floor of ~$40 TRIPLED, and the new price floor was set at ~$120 between Feb 5-25. Given that the price floor doubled and then tripled after these two events, could we be expecting the new price floor of more than 3X $120? (That would be a price floor of $360+ for those of you who needed help there)
- Edit to previous bullet: someone makes a fair point that "We can’t assume that since it doubled in January from $20 to $40 and tripled in March from $40 to $120 that therefore the next floor must be more than 3x $120. What if the rule in the sequence is +20->+80->+140? Or what if +20->+80->+20->+80?" I have included this just to explicitly state that my question "could we be expecting the new price floor of more than 3X $120?" by no means is intended to say the price floor WILL triple again. I feel like this is a good point to say that this is speculation and theorization based on observation and nothing more.
- The MACD line has literally only had significant crossovers (golden cross) 3 times this year.
- Event 1, Yellow ($480 run)
- Event 2, Blue ($350 run)
- Event 3, Pink (May 17th – today)
Additionally, I have plotted trend lines for each of the events.
- Event 1 (Yellow) we saw a 10 day increase of roughly 1,733%
- Event 2 (Blue) we saw a 10 day increase of roughly 770%.
- 770 / 1733 = 44% or a 56% reduction in 10 day price increase, although the price was starting from a floor of $40 instead of $20.
- 44% of 770% would be 338% starting from $120 which would mean a peak price of ~$405 in event 3, IF this short pattern continues exactly the same.
- THIS PATTERN WILL NOT CONTINUE EXACTLY THE SAME.
- I am only observing the trend of the current pattern. The sample size here is literally 2 events, albeit 2 very unlikely "coincidental" events. And I don't believe in coincidence.
- The pattern will break for many reasons, but the main reason is that hedge fund manipulation literally cannot continue forever.
- Once they get margin called its off to the races, and hopefully this event is the straw that quite literally breaks the camels back (Kenny G, you are the camel)
Oh yeah… forgot about this one. LOOK AT THE VOLUME. ITS LITERALLY FUCKING INSANE. MEDIA IS PUSHING AMC, KOSS, ANYTHING OTHER THAN GME AND YET IT HAS RUN UP FROM $132 (April 13th) TO $290 WITHOUT A SINGLE TRADING DAY VOLUME GREATER THAN 21 MILLION. WE SAW VOLUMES OF MORE THAN 150 MILLION IN JANUARY!
Alright guys. To summarize. We could be looking at going parabolic again on June 9th based on the pattern identified by the authors I mentioned above. The price action and technical signals are bullish as fuck.
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