Historical Post Earnings Moves MEGA Compilation AND Analysis (Q3 Week 7) – $ZM, $BBY, $DKS, $DLTR, $PDD, $XPEV, $DE, and More
Hey bull gang, hope you’re all doing well! Earnings week is slowly winding down, meaning we’ve got less opportunities to make plays. I believe this will be the last week of the historical post earnings move spreadsheet for the quarter, as next week barely has any companies reporting. I would like to thank you all for checking in with me all throughout the quarter and giving your opinions on my plays! I hope you all managed to make some good money by tagging along. I’ll see you all in two months! Let’s get into it.
To aid us in planning our trades this week, I've compiled a spreadsheet consisting of all of the Historical Post Earnings Moves of EVERY stock reporting earnings this week. Using this spreadsheet, we can determine which options to buy or sell to minimize risk and maximize probability for ANY given ticker. Obviously, past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but we can still use these numbers to gain a general idea of the expected earnings move of a given stock. Gone are the days of getting randomly blown out due to lack of information! If you’re struggling to find a given stock, click on the ticker symbol on the index page, it should hyperlink you straight to the table! If the above link isn’t working for you, refer to this link instead!
Interesting Observations and Sample Plays
Below I’ve compiled some interesting observations which can further aid us in making trades this week, alongside some sample plays for those who are new to playing earnings and need some guidance. If I missed anything, feel free to bring it to my attention!
- $DLTR and $DG provide us with a collateral play opportunity. $DLTR reports earnings this week, while $DG is set to report next. If I’m bullish or bearish on either company, I should look to enter a $DG position BEFORE $DLTR reports since the $DLTR report will move $DG a comparable amount. By playing $DG we can avoid IV crush but still cash in on our gains if we’re correct. More info on this type of play can be found here.
- $PDD is inefficiently priced. You guys already know the drill. At the time of writing, $PDD is priced to move around 10%. Historically $PDD moves 14%. Similar to $FL last week, $PDD reports on Friday, meaning that theta will murder the value of the options, allowing us to get in cheaper than we would normally be able to. Given that volatility doesn’t inflate, the options will be pricing a move closer to 8% come Friday, meaning we’ve got huge edge in this trade. If the numbers are still appealing come Wednesday afternoon (markets are closed Thursday), I will run a long straddle. More information on this type of play can be found here.
Summary and Conclusion
It seems as if earnings season is finally winding down – what a wild ride that was. Best of luck to those who decide to trade this week! Use the spreadsheet to determine which stocks offer the best risk to reward ratio, and play accordingly! If the sheet has helped you out in any way, please consider dropping an upvote or a comment, it would mean a lot to me! If you want access to more trading tools, have any specific questions or observations you’d like to share with the community, feel free to check out the community links in the spreadsheet. Happy Trading!
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