Historical Post Earnings Moves MEGA Compilation (Week 5) – $HD, $WMT, $TGT, $LOW, $CSCO, $GOEV, $XL, $SE and More
What's poppin' bull gang, Flux here with Week 5 of the Historical Post Earnings Moves MEGA Compilation. I hope you all made some good money following the spreadsheet last week, cause it's time to do it all again! Earnings season is slowly coming to an end, so this weeks spreadsheet is a little smaller than prior weeks, but that's alright, there's still money to be made.
All that being said, I fucking love earnings season. It’s an absolute battleground out there. Insane volatility, breaking announcements, and huge moves being made every single day for weeks at a time. What’s not to love? Anyone has a chance to pick the correct tickers, roll the dice, and amass a small fortune. That being said, the unpredictable nature of earnings season often makes or breaks traders – many find that they’re one bad trade away from a complete blowout, so you always need to think about each trade critically. No shame in sitting it out altogether.
To aid us in planning our trades this week, I've compiled a spreadsheet consisting of all of the Historical Post Earnings Moves of EVERY stock reporting earnings this week. Using this spreadsheet, we can determine which options to buy or sell to minimize risk and maximize probability for ANY given ticker. Obviously, past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but we can still use these numbers to gain a general idea of the expected earnings move of a given stock. Gone are the days of getting randomly blown out due to lack of information! If you’re struggling to find a given stock, click on the ticker symbol on the index page, it should hyperlink you straight to the table! If the above link isn’t working for you, refer to the link below!
Please note that scraping and compiling this data took hours. If the sheet has helped you out in any way, please drop an upvote or a comment and peep my socials! It would mean alot to me. Most websites also require you to pay for this data, which I think is a load of shit.
Interesting Observations and Sample Plays
Below I’ve compiled some interesting observations which can further aid us in making trades this week, alongside some sample plays for those who are new to playing earnings and need some guidance. If I missed anything, feel free to bring it to my attention!
- Expect larger moves coming out of retailers this week. Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart, and Target all have fairly conservative historical moves, but will likely break trend this earnings. Last quarter was fucking massive for these retail giants, as the holidays combined with stimulus cheques will likely lead to insane profits among them. Expect a large move to happen for each corresponding retailer, to either the upside or downside.
- Lots of Chinese tech companies report this week. If you're looking for a fun little collateral play, you can take a look at various Chinese tech ETFs and paly options on them. The IV on the ETFs is general lower than the ones on the individual tickers, although most of the tickers move in tandem with one another. If one beats, they usually all beat, and vice versa.
- Don't fall for the Solar trap. Solar has been heavily beat down all throughout earnings season, and as a result you may be inclined to buy Puts. Canadian Solar and Maxeon Solar have both slid extremely far following the movements of their peers throughout earnings, and are likely primed for a reversal. There isn't much farther for these stocks to go down, and as a result, a terrible earnings for both of these companies is already priced in. If they even match estimates, or put up a beat, they will likely move upwards. This exact situation occurred with Nikola two weeks back. I would look to play a neutral to bullish strategy on these tickers.
Obviously, since I gave data on over 50 companies, there's plenty that I’ve missed. Dive in, have a look around, and have some fun with it! Use the spreadsheet to aid you in picking the safest strikes, and get the best risk-reward possible. Feel free to share your findings too, I’d love to see what you guys come up with.
We’ve got an insane lineup of companies reporting earnings this week, meaning there’s a huge variety of plays to be made for traders of all skills and styles! Use the spreadsheet to determine which stocks offer the best risk to reward ratio, and play accordingly! If enough people found these useful, I'll continue making them throughout the earnings season! If the sheet has helped you out in any way, please consider dropping an upvote or a comment, and checking out my socials, it would mean a lot to me! Happy Trading Everybody! 🙂
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