Historical Post Earnings Moves MEGA Compilation (Week 5) – $NVDA, $SNOW, $CRM, $COST, $BBY, $ZS, $DKS, $TD, $BMO and More
What's poppin' bull gang, Flux here with Week 6 of the Historical Post Earnings Moves MEGA Compilation. I hope you all made some good money following the spreadsheet last week, cause it's time to do it all again! Earnings season is just about over, so there is a good chance that this is going to be the final spreadsheet until Q2 rolls around. Thank you all for joining me for the ride!
All that being said, I fucking love earnings season. It’s an absolute battleground out there. Insane volatility, breaking announcements, and huge moves being made every single day for weeks at a time. What’s not to love? Anyone has a chance to pick the correct tickers, roll the dice, and amass a small fortune. That being said, the unpredictable nature of earnings season often makes or breaks traders – many find that they’re one bad trade away from a complete blowout, so you always need to think about each trade critically. No shame in sitting it out altogether.
To aid us in planning our trades this week, I've compiled a spreadsheet consisting of all of the Historical Post Earnings Moves of EVERY stock reporting earnings this week. Using this spreadsheet, we can determine which options to buy or sell to minimize risk and maximize probability for ANY given ticker. Obviously, past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but we can still use these numbers to gain a general idea of the expected earnings move of a given stock. Gone are the days of getting randomly blown out due to lack of information! If you’re struggling to find a given stock, click on the ticker symbol on the index page, it should hyperlink you straight to the table! If the above link isn’t working for you, refer to the link below!
Please note that scraping and compiling this data took hours. If the sheet has helped you out in any way, please drop an upvote or a comment and peep my socials! It would mean alot to me. Most websites also require you to pay for this data, which I think is a load of shit.
Interesting Observations and Sample Plays
Below I’ve compiled some interesting observations which can further aid us in making trades this week, alongside some sample plays for those who are new to playing earnings and need some guidance. If I missed anything, feel free to bring it to my attention!
- All major Canadian Banks report this week. Some names in the lineup include BMO, RY, TD, and CM. BMO reports first out of the four, so we can look at their earnings results and corresponding price movement to predict the movements of the following three banks. Similar to the American banks in Week 1, I'm expecting huge beats across the board, alongside some comfortable upwards movement.
- Those with OTC / TSE access should look to make a collateral play on the banks. Again, similar to Week 1, you could've played XLF alongside the American banks and made a fat bag. Those looking to run that play back should look into $ZEB – The IV is low as hell, and it only holds Canadian banks. Options on it are dirt cheap, with an option less than 1% OTM going for a grand total of $0.10. Every percent this thing moves will give you a 3-bagger. Unfortunately, the ticker isn't liquid whatsoever, and the bid ask spread isn't too appealing. You're gonna be buying at the ask, and selling at the bid, so even if we get a nice move, we're still gonna get trashed by slippage. ITM options may be the way to play this one – I couldn't find a better ETF alternative, so this one is the best we got. This play is definitely one of the riskier ones.
- Piggybacking off the last point, liquidity is suspect this week. Majority of the companies reporting have godawful options chains. If you think you see an awesome play, make sure you check the volume and open interests in the option chain before committing to it. You'll find that lots of the tickers this week lack any real liquidity on the options chain, so there's gonna be a fucking crater in the bid-ask spread. You're guaranteed to be buying at the ask and selling at the bid, and this huge spread adds additional risk that will balloon your losses and shrink your winners.
- ZScaler options are inefficiently priced. Historically, ZScaler moves roughly 15% post earnings, but the options chain is only pricing in a 5% move this time round. This gives us gambler a huge edge, since we won't get IV crushed as hard, and we can buy our options for cheap. There are lots of strategies you can run this week, but I'm personally going to opt for a long strangle or long iron condor if I can get good fills.
Obviously, since I gave data on over 40 companies, there's plenty that I’ve missed. Dive in, have a look around, and have some fun with it! Use the spreadsheet to aid you in picking the safest strikes, and get the best risk-reward possible. Feel free to share your findings too, I’d love to see what you guys come up with.
We’ve got an insane lineup of companies reporting earnings this week, meaning there’s a huge variety of plays to be made for traders of all skills and styles! Use the spreadsheet to determine which stocks offer the best risk to reward ratio, and play accordingly! If enough people found these useful, I'll continue making them throughout the earnings season! If the sheet has helped you out in any way, please consider dropping an upvote or a comment, and checking out my socials, it would mean a lot to me! Happy Trading Everybody! 🙂
Jump To The Original Source