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Marathon Digital ($MARA) DD: Pinup Edition

Marathon Digital ($MARA) DD: Pinup Edition

Made a bunch of money this year, lost a bunch of money this year, made a bunch, lost a bunch, now I'm ready to make a little more. I wanted to share this trade to you in hopes that you'll pump up my IV I can finally give back to this community.

Marathon Digital ($MARA) is a company that mines commodities. It is very profitable. I won't bore you with the details, but the important thing is the volatility. Let's take a look at it:

Historical and Implied Volaitility for MARA (Marathon Digital Holdings)

If you look at the historical volatility for $MARA, it's on an uptrend, but it is unusually low right now given the rise in the commodity they mine. I believe that both the share price, as well as the IV, will rise in the coming months. Given the IV from the rally earlier this year, let's say that 250% is not unreasonable to expect. Let's take a look at what that would do for those holding calendar spreads. I like to use OptionStrat. Here's my trade with the current IV (https://optionstrat.com/build/calendar-call-spread/MARA/-220218C125@2.54,220318C125@3.60):

Profit and Loss at Current IV

And here's what it would look like if IV pumps to 250%:

Profit and Loss at Inflated IV

Where we can see, even a modest 100% gain in the share price (not unlikely given the past performance) would net a 21x return, and a little bit higher prices would give you that 25 bagger you've always dreamed about.

My position is 100x Feb/Mar 125c calendar spreads. It also happens to be a YOLO!

Here's my position

Let me know what you think.

tldr: 100x Feb/Mar 125c calendar spreads. MARA to the friggin moon.

submitted by /u/WhyDoISmellToast
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