No, you’re not the next Michael Burry, stop dreaming

Lately I've seen a lot of bear talk going around, and some of you really seem to think you're onto something. Let me tell you this, no, I'm almost certain you're not the next Michael Burry. You can short the market, do it if you want, but more likely than not, you're going to lose that money. If it makes you sleep better at night, buy spy puts every day for the next year, but know that you're going to lose that money, more likely than not.

The arguement I've seen people using for "The Crash is Coming!" is the latest CPI numbers, which many fail to mention were driven by used car sales. They also fail to mention the fact that PPI changes were the same as they were last month (why you seen green on Thursday), the shit numbers in retail sales, and jobless claims.

You can continue to buy into silver, gold, lumber, etc, it really doesn't bother me, but the returns are shit, and chances are, you're buying into a bubble with some of these commodities. If you're buying into gold, you clearly hate money, since it seems to follow the S&P, just with far shittier returns. Same goes for silver if you look at it in the long run. The only exception has been this year, and unless you bought in July, you've essentially missed out on all the fun. You probably have a better chance of making money shorting silver than you have shorting SPY, since that shit looks like a bubble, and looking at lumber futures, well they've been tanking the past few days (Surprise, surprise, not that hard to cut trees, easy to increase output to benefit on the high prices, sending them falling. If you jumped onto this, you're retarded.)

submitted by /u/Traditional_Fee_8828
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