What's up fellow retards,
I am applying my strategy as a day trader to see what our long term resistance and support levels are. I'm simply a day trader of three years that has consistently used standard deviations, relative volatility index, and volume on a 6month and 1year time frame to determine my buy/sell areas on stocks, no matter whether I am swing trading or trading intraday. My current trading accuracy is 81%.
-Easy Breakdown of Statistical Standard deviations – 68% of a stock's price range over a given time frame is within 1 statistical standard deviation (2 blue lines) of it's average/regression trend (middle line), 95% within two deviations (first upper and lower purple lines), and 99.7% within 3 deviations (second upper and lower purple lines), known as the 68-95-99.7 rule. Most importantly, these deviations also function as true support and resistance levels, with deviations, once crossed, becoming either the new resistance or new support level.
See my Previous SOFI and AMC, and AMZN, NVDA etc. TA's if you want examples of how this strategy works.
NOW LET'S GET INTO SOME CHART PORN FOR SPCE!!!
Here are our One Year and 6 Month Deviation Support and Resistance lines for SPCE – https://imgur.com/FmCo3OU
This week was rough, SPCE broke through its One Year and 6 Month +1 Deviation support, then broke through its long term regression/mean trend line (middle line), and has seemed to want to cross some minor support around +.5 deviations (dotted line on 6 month chart) in the immediate future.
So, where should you be looking to add positions?
The most important and nearest support deviation trend line available to us at this point is -1 deviations (bottom blue line) on both the one year and 6 month chart at around $26 and $25. This is where we will encounter some serious long term trending support levels and will likely see bulls try to bounce the price off these two price levels as less selling pressure comes in as our relative volatility index is around 25 on the one year chart, and on the 6 month, we can see what's known as a "divergence" forming on relative volatility as the price continues to drop yet the index is slowly rising and is around 43 right now – https://imgur.com/J7wlSNo
Should we cross -1 deviations, our next nearest support levels are at $14-16 price levels of -2 deviations on one year and the 6 month chart however given the strong fundamentals of the company we will likely see some strong support forming at our -1 deviation support levels and hopefully a break out to the upside regression trend of $35-37 in the coming weeks once we bottom out.
It should be noted that we have some slight support around $30 at .5 deviations (white dotted line) on the 6month chart, but it seems like the price is already making its move down to our next deviation support levels – https://imgur.com/eNFOSPS
Good luck to everyone out there, buy that dip if we can hit support in the next week. Peace !
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